Where is Albemarle Growing as of 4th Quarter 2006?

Albemarle County has released the 2006 Year End Building Report.  Thus I have updated my previous analysis of where new building permits are being issued in the County.  These do NOT reflect all newly approved developments, but rather homes in developments previously approved where a building permit has now been issued.  ALSO, while the County's report includes ALL types of housing, my analysis is limited to single family detached (SFD) homes, as those are a leading indicator of future enrollment growth for Albemarle County Public Schools.

Looking back over the last twelve month period (January 2006-December 2006), SFD building permits were issued as follows in Albemarle's six magisterial districts:

141 (37.1%) in White Hall
80 (21.1%) in Rivanna
77 (20.3%) in Scottsville
65 (17.1%) in Samuel Miller
11 (2.9%) in Rio
6 (1.6%) in Jack Jouett

From my website you can download a historical view of this data by magisterial district (chart above). http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/2006Q4-SFD-Permits.pdf

For the SFD permits detailed above (last 12 months), 64% were in rural areas and 18% were in the Crozet designated growth area (i.e. not all the White Hall housing shown above is in Crozet).

Brian Wheeler

Comments

[Dave Phillips]

Brian,
I have heard a rumor that the school system has only grown by a handfull of students in the last 5 years. Most people are under the impression that Albemarle growth is swamping the public school system. Can you tell us the increase in the number of students in Albemarle public schools in the last 5 years?

[bawheeler]

That is no rumor. In fact I routinely mention the actual numbers to the public in meetings and on this blog. Check out my October update on the 5-year enrollment projections. There you will see we have grown by 193 students over the last 5 years [2006-07=12,445; 2002-03=12,252]. In the 2007-08 budget, we are projecting to have an added 22 students next year [budget page F-8].

One of the things I am trying to educate the public about with the posting of building permit data is to show where students are likely to be in the future. That doesn't mean they will necessarily be added students, as it can also be existing students moving to growth areas like Crozet. That is in fact what we are seeing with the enrollment spikes at Stony Point Elementary (Pantops growth) and Crozet Elementary (Crozet growth area). Dave, since you are head of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors (CAAR), I am sure you understand that issue quite well! Thanks for the question.

Brian Wheeler