As regular readers of the SchoolMatters blog will know, I have been talking for some time about the growth patterns around the County and in Crozet in particular (especially during last year's redistricting decisions). Here is a collection of those posts.
Hot off the press in advance of tomorrow's School Board meeting where we will discuss the Capital Improvements Program (CIP) are draft 5-year enrollment projections. In December 2005, we were projecting Crozet Elementary would be at 428 in 2010 (that is today's enrollment at Crozet by the way). NOW, we are projecting that Crozet will be at 466 in 2010. Crozet's rated building capacity is 342 and the School Board is considering a recommendation to expand the building to hold 513 students. Today, Brownsville Elementary is at 383 with a rated building capacity of 456. It is also projected to grow and by 2011 is expected to be at capacity. The Crozet Master Plan calls for a third elementary school in Crozet.
In a December 31, 2005 post, I predicted the previous 5-year enrollment figures were too low. The new draft projections increase the total number of students in the school division in the year 2010 from the previous estimate of 12,566 to 12,593. Certainly a small jump overall, but when the growth happens in isolated parts of the County (i.e. Crozet and Stony Point this year), it makes a big impact on those schools. Interestingly, the projection for 2011 has enrollment dropping to 12,579.
Here are today's DRAFT updated 5-year projections:
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20061025enrollment-draft.pdf
And here are the projections from December 2005
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20051231enrollment-analysis.pdf
Brian Wheeler
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