SchoolMatters Blog

Update on long range plans & redistricting

The Albemarle County School Board just received an update on long range planning and redistricting issues.  The Crozet and Brownsville Elementary communities should expect a thorough update from the School Division in May 2008 related to Phase II of the redistricting plans to open the addition being built at Brownsville.

Boundary Adjustments - The first phase of adjustments will examine different options for moving students from Crozet Elementary to Brownsville Elementary for the fall of 2009. Staff is currently reviewing 5-year projections, numbers of students at each grade level, current location of students, and predicted growth to develop viable options to be presented to the community in May. After the community presentation. a web-site will be developed to receive input through the summer. Staff will then consider the input, look at September 30th enrollment numbers, and finalize options to be brought forward to the Superintendent and ultimately to the School Board.

Over the next year, staff will toke a comprehensive look at capacity, projected enrollment numbers, and anticipated growth to address capacity issues for the entire Division. Topics of discussion will include the current structure of K-5, 6-8, and 9-12, assumptions regarding feeder patterns, and routing of buses.

Download entire memo as a PDF.

Brian Wheeler

Daily Progress article on schools for Biscuit Run

As a good follow up to my last post on Biscuit Run, today's Daily Progress has an article on the school issues related to the proposed 3,100 home development. 

Reporter Matt Deegan did a good job, but I'd like to expand on my comments quoted in the article.  He said I was confident the 738 student estimate for Biscuit Run was accurate.  I am very confident we will have lots of students living in Biscuit Run, enrollment projections are not an exact science.  I pointed out that Old Trail Village in Crozet was delivering the number of students our multipliers (i.e. enrollment projections based on housing types) had predicted. 

"By looking exclusively at school enrollment trends, 'you wouldn’t have predicted that we would have needed to redistrict Crozet,' Wheeler said."  By that I meant, if you looked at the division-wide enrollment trends, which are increasing about one student per school per year, you could see how anyone might argue their new development wouldn't generate the need for school seats.  Clearly, that's not the case in Crozet where schools are already overcrowded and we are rapidly building an addition at Brownsville Elementary.  I don't expect Biscuit Run to be any different.

My main points:

• If Biscuit Run is a family-friendly neighborhood model development like it is being advertised, families with children will live here.  We need to plan for that. 
• The only time the community can get a proffer to support the capital costs for school seats is at the time of the rezoning.  Our attention to that need should not be diverted by plans for retirees or current enrollment trends. 
• If the developer thinks current enrollment trends should be the driving factor, then what about looking at the current housing and population trends?  One could argue nobody needs Biscuit Run's new houses and thus we shouldn't approve the development yet because population is growing by less than 1% annually, the current housing market is soft, and there is a full pipeline of recently approved developments that remain unbuilt. The response might be... but UVA is growing, but NGIC is expanding, we are putting more tax dollars into economic development - we need housing for these people.  So we are going to grow!  That means more kids in our schools.
• Developments like Old Trail Village and Glenmore pay cash proffers for each home built into the County's capital budget.  Biscuit Run has no cash proffers to support school construction.
• Let's negotiate a good deal for the taxpayers in Albemarle.

Brian Wheeler

Expected school costs for Biscuit Run

I am often asked about the school division's plans to accommodate new development.  Crozet's growth has been a case in point.  As the White Hall district continues to lead the way in construction of new single family detached housing, people ask me--When we are going to build a new elementary school in Crozet to address overcrowded schools?  When are we going to add on to Western Albemarle HS?  What are we going to do when Henley (already expanded to 900 student capacity) fills up?  Who is going to pay for all these buildings?

Short answers: We are expanding Brownsville elementary starting this year (the Charlottesville firm VMDO has been selected as the architect).  We have approved a redistricting to alleviate some overcrowding at Crozet.  Additions to high school capacity and additional elementary schools are in the long range capital plans. When Henley fills up, we will have to redistrict students out of the Western feeder pattern.  We are ALL going to pay for the infrastructure through our property taxes.

When Old Trail Village was approved in Crozet, the school division calculated an estimate of the number of children that would attend Crozet schools--A total of 476 students from this one development's 2,200 homes. A similar calculation has now been done for the Biscuit Run development.  At 3,100 homes, Biscuit Run is the largest development ever to come before decision makers in Albemarle County.  When fully developed over the next 15-20 years, Biscuit Run is expected to have 738 students attending County schools in the area around Monticello HS and Cale Elementary.  Unlike Old Trail, Biscuit Run's developers have proffered the site for a new neighborhood elementary school.  A similar proffer was made in the North Pointe development on Route 29 North.  While we will have the land for two new schools, the community still has to pay to build the infrastructure.  That comes out of the County's capital budget.

In a recent memo from the school division to Assistant County Executive Tom Foley, school staff put a price tag on the 738 new pupil seats of $19 million.  That represents the one-time capital costs to build adequate school capacity to accommodate future families living in Biscuit Run.  That is in 2007 dollars.  The developers are not proffering any contribution to support those capital expenses.  In fact, the Biscuit Run developers predict Albemarle County is going to be closing schools as our community attracts more retirees.  They foresee a graying population and declining enrollments. 

The Albemarle County Planning Commission has already weighed in and indicated they will not request funding from the developer for middle and high school capital needs.  I also don't expect the developers to hand us a check for $19 million to build new schools.  However, per household cash proffers have been used in the past to mitigate school capital costs.  For example, every home in Glenmore contributes $1,000 in a one-time proffer towards school capital projects.  That was from an agreement negotiated in 2000 and funds have been used for projects at Stone-Robinson Elementary and Monticello HS.  Recent cash proffers for new developments have been negotiated at about $3,200 per home.  However, after getting a report from the County's Fiscal Impact Advisory Committee, the Board of Supervisors determined earlier this month that cash proffers for a single family home should realistically be about $17,500 to accommodate just the immediate capital projects for roads, schools, and fire/rescue projects ALREADY in the capital budget.  That $17,500 figure doesn't include water, sewer, or longer term capital needs (e.g. what if the new school or road or bridge isn't already on the ledger to be built in the next 10 years?). 

As I said, there are no per-household cash proffers being proposed for the Biscuit Run development to address school needs.  The developer's proffers are currently valued by the County at $30.9 million and are focused on other priorities like transportation, parks, and affordable housing.  We certainly need those things too.

The School Board was told last Thursday that the developers were not very happy to have a price tag of $19 million for schools put on the Biscuit Run development.  Maybe we haven't made those estimates in advance before, but the data speaks for itself.  I think we are getting smarter about recognizing and planning for these costs and the public should be aware that our decision makers have this information in front of them.  Now it is available to you too.

The Albemarle County Planning Commission holds a public hearing on Biscuit Run Tuesday evening, May 29th, starting at 6:00 PM. 

Brian Wheeler

Crozet redistricting

The Albemarle County School Board has received the Superintendent's recommendations for redistricting students from Crozet Elementary to both Brownsville (29 students) and Meriwether Lewis (24 students) for Fall 2007 in order to address overcrowding at Crozet.

Redistricting calendar:

• March 8th, School Board receives recommendations
• March 15th, public hearing on proposal - Crozet Elementary at 6:30 PM
• March 22nd, School Board votes on redistricting

Brian Wheeler

School redistricting plans begin: Crozet Elementary students likely to move to Brownsville

11/30/06 * Daily Progress [full story]

Beginning in the fall, students could start moving from the overcrowded Crozet Elementary School to Brownsville.

The Albemarle County School Board agreed to adjust its long-term Capital Improvement budget plan Wednesday to move up construction for an addition on Brownsville Elementary to the earliest possible date, which would allow the redistricting of students from Crozet to Brownsville.

The board also decided to push back the recommendation to expand Crozet Elementary. The proposal now is no longer in its five-year plan.

County school administrators will prepare a draft of a final proposal based on the board’s agreement. The School Board will vote on the matter during its Dec. 14 meeting. The county Board of Supervisors then must approve the plan.

The redistricting would be based on certain neighborhoods that the division would pinpoint, School Board Chairwoman Sue Friedman said. After five years, there could be a more comprehensive redistricting.

Friedman said the unpredictable growth in the area makes it difficult to assure parents that their children will have stability in a school for five years.

Additional elementary capacity to be added at Brownsville

At a work session this evening, the Albemarle County School Board reached consensus to address the elementary enrollment growth in the Crozet area with an addition at Brownsville Elementary.  Some students will be redistricted from Crozet Elementary to existing available seats at Brownsville for Fall 2007 to address the overcrowding currently at Crozet.  No redistricting details have been discussed yet, but with this capital decision made, staff will initiate a public process that allows for community feedback to the Board.

The previously proposed addition for Crozet Elementary was removed from the first 5 years of the Capital Improvement Program (CIP).  It will remain as a potential project in the second 5 year period of the 10-year CIP (In the discussions, I stated my preference for building a third neighborhood elementary school in Crozet before we add on to Crozet Elementary).

In other discussions by the School Board, there was consensus to move forward renovations to Greer Elementary, potentially starting them in 2008 instead of 2009.  The addition and renovation for Albemarle High School (starting in 2007) and the addition for Western Albemarle High School (starting in 2010) were kept on their recommended schedule in the CIP.  The additions and renovations scheduled for elementary schools in the Southern Feeder Pattern (Scottsville/Red Hill), were pushed back on the CIP schedule to allow Brownsville and Greer to move forward.

Staff will take this feedback from the School Board and develop a final 2007-2016 CIP proposal for the Board's approval at our December 14, 2006 meeting.  Then it will be sent to the Board of Supervisors for their consideration.

Thank you to all the citizens that gave me feedback on this issue by e-mail and telephone over the past couple of months.

Brian Wheeler

Where is Albemarle Growing as of 3rd Quarter 2006?

Albemarle County has released the 2006 Third Quarter Building Report [report coming to this web page soon].  Thus I have updated my previous analysis of where new building permits are being issued in the County.  These do NOT reflect all newly approved developments, but rather homes in developments previously approved where a building permit has now been issued.  ALSO, while the County's report includes ALL types of housing, my analysis is limited to single family detached (SFD) homes, as those are a leading indicator of future enrollment growth for Albemarle County Public Schools.

Looking back over the last twelve month period (October 2005-September 2006), SFD building permits were issued as follows in Albemarle's six magisterial districts:

148 (37.0%) in White Hall
79 (19.8%) in Rivanna
79 (19.8%) in Samuel Miller
77 (19.3%) in Scottsville
12 (3.0%) in Rio
5 (1.3%) in Jack Jouett

From my website you can download a historical view of this data by magisterial district (chart above). http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/2006Q3-SFD-Permits.pdf

For the SFD permits detailed above (last 12 months), 63.5% were in rural areas and 18% were in the Crozet designated growth area (i.e. not all the White Hall housing shown above is in Crozet).

Brian Wheeler

Updated 5-year enrollment projections

As regular readers of the SchoolMatters blog will know, I have been talking for some time about the growth patterns around the County and in Crozet in particular (especially during last year's redistricting decisions).  Here is a collection of those posts.

Hot off the press in advance of tomorrow's School Board meeting where we will discuss the Capital Improvements Program (CIP) are draft 5-year enrollment projections. In December 2005, we were projecting Crozet Elementary would be at 428 in 2010 (that is today's enrollment at Crozet by the way).  NOW, we are projecting that Crozet will be at 466 in 2010.  Crozet's rated building capacity is 342 and the School Board is considering a recommendation to expand the building to hold 513 students.  Today, Brownsville Elementary is at 383 with a rated building capacity of 456.  It is also projected to grow and by 2011 is expected to be at capacity.  The Crozet Master Plan calls for a third elementary school in Crozet.

In a December 31, 2005 post, I predicted the previous 5-year enrollment figures were too low.  The new draft projections increase the total number of students in the school division in the year 2010 from the previous estimate of 12,566 to 12,593.  Certainly a small jump overall, but when the growth happens in isolated parts of the County (i.e. Crozet and Stony Point this year), it makes a big impact on those schools.  Interestingly, the projection for 2011 has enrollment dropping to 12,579.

Here are today's DRAFT updated 5-year projections:
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20061025enrollment-draft.pdf

And here are the projections from December 2005
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20051231enrollment-analysis.pdf

Brian Wheeler

Where is Albemarle Growing as of 2nd Quarter 2006?

Albemarle County has released the 2006 Second Quarter Building Report.  Thus I have updated my previous analysis of where new building permits are being issued in the County.  These do NOT reflect all newly approved developments, but rather homes in developments previously approved where a building permit has now been issued.  ALSO, while the County's report includes ALL types of housing, my analysis is limited to single family detached (SFD) homes, as those are a leading indicator of future enrollment growth for Albemarle County Public Schools.

During the last twelve months (July 2005-June 2006), SFD building permits were issued as follows in Albemarle's six magisterial districts:

144 (35.8%) in White Hall
82 (20.4%) in Scottsville
81 (20.1%) in Rivanna
73 (18.2%) in Samuel Miller
17 (4.2%) in Rio
5 (1.2%) in Jack Jouett

From my website you can download a historical view of this data by magisterial district.
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/2006Q2-SFD-Permits.pdf

For the SFD permits detailed above (last 12 months), 59.95% were in rural areas and 18.16% were in the Crozet designated growth area (i.e. not all the White Hall housing shown above is in Crozet).

Brian Wheeler

Where is Albemarle Growing as of 1st Quarter 2006?

Albemarle County has released the 2006 First Quarter Building Report.  Thus I have updated my previous analysis of where new building permits are being issued in the County.  These do not reflect ALL newly approved developments, but rather homes in developments previously approved where a building permit has now been issued.

NOTE: The County's report includes ALL types of housing, but my analysis is limited to single family detached (SFD) homes, as those are a leading indicator of future enrollment growth for Albemarle County Public Schools.

During the last twelve months (April 2005-March 2006), SFD building permits were issued as follows in Albemarle's six magisterial districts:

171 (39%) in White Hall
84 (19.2%) in Scottsville
76 (17.4%) in Samuel Miller
74 (16.9%) in Rivanna
23 (5.3%) in Rio
10 (2.3%) in Jack Jouett

From my website you can download a historical view of this data by magisterial district.
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/2006Q1-SFD-Permits.pdf

For the SFD permits detailed above, 51.8% were in rural areas and 23.3% were in the Crozet growth area (i.e. not all the White Hall housing shown above is in Crozet) during the last twelve months.

Brian Wheeler