Enrollment Projections on the Rise Again

Albemarle County Public Schools released updated 5-year enrollment projections last week. In the 2010 school year, we are now projecting to have 129 more students in our public schools, in the entire county, than we have today.  Staff have warned the School Board that "projections that are 5 years into the future may have significant variance."  The previous 5 year projection, which ended in 2009, showed a total gain of 20 students over 5 years.  Looking backwards over the previous 5 years at ACTUAL enrollment, we have grown by 298 students between 2001 and 2005.

Now if you are really interested in these numbers, you may want to download the PDF linked below which has most of the source data.  What follows is my personal assessment of this data (not the school board's).

Analysis: http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20051231enrollment-analysis.pdf

Let's start by looking at ACTUAL recent enrollment changes over the span of a single year:
* 2003 saw a decline of 1 student over previous year (1 year projection was off by 69 students)
* 2004 saw growth of 106 students over previous year (1 year projection was off by 16 students)
* 2005 saw growth of 81 students over previous year (1 year projection was off by 65 students)
[Note: One-year projection error rates are about 1/2 a percentage point or less, which is quite good in my book]

This process of projecting our enrollment reminds me of the 5-day cone of probability for hurricane path projections.  Where will it make land fall?  You watch the Weather Channel and know a lot of smart people are looking at a whole lot of data, yet the cone showing where it might hit land is hundreds of miles wide.  Mother Nature.  Projecting enrollment it like that too, a mix of art, science and, in this case, the human nature wildcard.

In the PDF linked above, and shown in smaller pictures here, are the tracks of the past 5-year projections.  The second picture adds a "cone of probability" on it.  This is my own invention and I calculate the "cone of probability" as a cumulative 1/2 a percentage point error, plus or minus, on a given year's projection.

So recognizing the difficulty of making these projections, let's look at what the current data on new housing, birth rates, and enrollment trends has told our staff besides the fact that we will grow by 129 students.  Where will we grow?  Of the eleven schools projected to be filled to 92% or greater of capacity come 2010, six are the schools in the Western Albemarle feeder pattern--that is ALL the schools in the Western Albemarle feeder pattern. On page 6 of the PDF linked above you can see a table I made showing how each County school is projected to look in 2010, sorted by % capacity utilized, assuming no new construction or redistricting.  Crozet Elementary tops the list at 125% over capacity.

Let's talk about development in Albemarle.  It is very difficult to predict where families will move, whether they will chose public or private schools, how fast certain developments will be built out, will the people that move in just be moving from somewhere else in the County or coming from outside Albemarle.  Upon seeing these enrollment projections however, I know my constituents are going to ask about new developments like Old Trail Village in Crozet or Belvedere Farm off Rio Road.  How many new students are projected to come from those developments and isn't it more than the 129 additional students you are expecting?  I asked staff for student projections from these developments this past August and here is what we learned:

Old Trail Village = 476 students
Belvedere = 259 students (assuming 100% single-family detached housing type, or "worst case")
TOTAL = 735 students

So how can we look at that data and reconcile a 5-year projection that says we will only be adding 129 students total in Albemarle County?  Good question.  Frankly, I think our current 5-year projection will prove to be low and we will end up with actuals in the higher portion of my "cone of probability."  We also have to keep in mind the actual rate at which these developments are built-out and people with school-aged children actually move in is highly variable and can take many years.

Thanks Brian, but does it really matter?
Yes and no.  The School Board asks for 5 year enrollment projections to help plan for where we need building capacity and to prepare for redistrictings.  We recently completed a county-wide redistricting that goes into effect Fall 2006.

The next major building projects that deal with capacity are as follows:
* Cale Elementary Expansion (in progress)
* Albemarle HS Renovation/Expansion (Projects starts in 2007)
* Red Hill Elementary Addition/Renovation (Projects starts in 2008)
* Scottsville Elementary Addition/Renovation (Projects starts in 2008)
* Elementary School #17 (Project starts in 2010, location TBD)
* Additional HS Capacity (Projects starts in 2011, location TBD)
* Elementary School #18 (Project starts in 2014, location TBD)

As you can see, we will have lots of new data and projections in place before these projects are started.  The projects may be adjusted in the Capital Improvement Program based on recommendations from staff and the Long Range Planning Committee.

Do the enrollment numbers matter when it comes to the budget?
When we start preparing the 2006-07 budget, we will use as our guide the ACTUAL September 30, 2005 enrollment number of 12,438 and a projection for next year only. That 1-year projection gets us through the budget process. However, if we get many fewer students in 2006 than we expect or a at a given school the enrollment is off, we don’t just spend the money budgeted. Staffing formulas in our operational budget are based on 1-year projections and we only expend funds based on ACTUAL enrollment.

Hope you find this interesting!  Brian Wheeler

Comments

[Marshall Chase]

First, I would like to express my appreciation and thanks for providing this kind of data and your interpretive view.

I think it is also important to look at the history and impact of enrollment on capital improvement over the years. I was a teacher in the division for 13 years and have lived in the area for the last 20. It seems like every project, renovation or new structure is followed up in 12 months with an expansion to the existing structure.

I can not recall a NEW building going up without a 'mobile classroom' follow-up in 1 year or less.

I think that this calls for a bit of boldness, a willingness to err on the side of caution.

While our communities, particularly in the West end of the county, undergo significant change, I think it is critical to recall what has functioned well in the past. Smaller schools, particularly elementary, lead to greater historical familiarity that benefits students and educators. A closer sense of community develops both in the school and its surroundings. Perhaps there is some wisdom in building more, but SMALLER schools. The time frame for their development from start to finish is smaller. If there is concern about their long-term viability, so be it. If for some reason long-term enrollment should drop to a particular school then there are simple conversions that can be made to other community oriented buildings. We are in desperate need of a youth center for instance.

Just some thoughts and ramblings. Thanks.

[bawheeler]

Marshall - Thanks for your comments. It seems like I was just at your house going door-to-door, but that was over two years ago! It sounds like you are advocating for building new facilities sooner rather than later. I certainly expect one of the next elementary schools to be built in Crozet (added to Brownsville & Crozet). A key question is how much pain in the form of trailers and redistricting can we take before that happens? When is the tipping point that a school's enrollment starts negatively impacting instruction? In a community that is growing, these are the questions we have to address. On the positive side, redistricting in the heart of Crozet will only impact elementary schools since we know students will go to Henley Middle and WAHS. One of my goals in discussing this data is to make sure the public and school board are taking a long term view and making decisions that will move students as little as possible. School staff are recommending to the School Board that we start annually identifying target enrollment ranges on a school by school basis. These ranges will take into consideration programmatic offerings, infrastructure, staffing, and the ability to accommodate mobile classrooms on site. Brian Wheeler